The future of the Euro: - it could all be down to a football match!

Greece to return to the Polls on 17 June: - the day after Greece v Russia in Euro 2012

So it's official, Greece will return to the Polls on 17 June in an attempt to get around the impasse created by the inconclusive general election of 6 May. According to the Sky News Economics Editor, Ed Conway, the latest opinion polls put the "far left" anti-bailout party Syriza at 20.3% ahead of current leader New Democracy (a mainstream party) at 14.2%. If the polls are borne out next month then Greece will be irrevocably on a collision course with the Chancellor (who must be obeyed) of Germany, Angela Merkel. Most commentators then predict that bail out funds will cease and Greece will finally ditch the Euro.

It could all come down to a football match

Greece are scheduled to play Russia in the European Championship finals group stage in Warsaw the night before on 16 June. This fact would not have escaped the attentions of those who are responsible for the scheduling of the election. Apparently the poll could have been held on 10 June. This is a serious point. It is well known that a "feel good" factor benefits incumbents going into elections. Conversely incumbents can expect to reap the wrath of the electorate if sudden "bad news" is received in the immediate period before the election. In the case of Greece consider the "mainstream" parties of Pasok and New Democracy to be the incumbents for the purpose of the forthcoming repeat election.

Two examples: - United Kingdom General Election of 1970 and Spanish General Election of 2004

There are two major examples of "events" perhaps influencing the outcome of elections in modern times. In both examples the incumbent governments (Labour in the case of the UK and the People's Party in Spain). where unexpectedly "kicked out" of office. Of course the events I am about to describe are of a different magnitude in each example. In the UK a football match was influential; however, in Spain it was the deadly terrorist attacks in Madrid on 11 March 2004 and the handling of the aftermath by the incumbent government, which turned the election on it's head.

England played West Germany on 14 June 1970 in the Quarter Final of the World Cup in Mexico. England, of course, where defending champions having beat their opponents but four years earlier in the final on home soil. Expectations were high. The "small matter" of a general election was scheduled for 18 June 1970. The incumbent Labour Party, led by Harold Wilson, was expected to "romp home". England lost the game 3-2 after extra time. Four days later, Mr Wilson suddenly needed a removal van!. Labour found themselves out of power and Edward Heath and the Conservative opposition were in Downing Street with a healthy working majority. None of the polls had predicted this!. It was argued that the "feel good" factor had been damaged by England's loss a few days earlier.

The Spanish example is, of course, somewhat different, people were killed. The lesson though is similar. An incumbent government expecting re-election was out of office as a direct result of an event just a few days earlier. In this example the event had a direct impact on the election. The England game may have been influential in 1970 (maybe even very influential) but it can't in anyway be argued that the football match in Mexico had a direct impact in the manner of the Madrid bombings of 2004.

So what's all this got to do with Greece?

Quite simply Judicial Cat suggests closely following the result of the Greece v Russia football match on 16 June. Should Greece win (and win well) expect a result more favourable to the "mainstream" parties Pasok and New Democracy. Those parties may still not do well enough but things will be close. Should Russia win the night before then your blogger expects a clear reaction the next day. Things are bad in Greece, we all know that. Losing on the football pitch will just reinforce in the minds of the Greek electorate that their nation continues on a "downward spiral". In such an event expect the equivalent of an electoral "blood bath". 

It really will be "all over" and Greece will be heading for the Grexit!